Controversial Nuclear Agreement: Trump Accelerates Saudi Arabia's Path to Nuclear Weapons

Decoding the US-Saudi Nuclear Agreement: Opportunity or Global Threat?

In early 2017 during his first presidential term, a high-ranking White House official informally told OilPrice.com, "We will not accept anything from Saudi Arabia anymore." This statement came after the 2014-2016 oil price war, during which Saudi Arabia mobilized other OPEC members to increase production and lower oil prices, causing bankruptcy for many American shale producers. At that time, Saudi Arabia viewed the US shale industry as a threat to their own oil sector, which provided approximately 90% of government revenue in early 2014.

Thanks to the remarkable reorganization of American shale producers, the United States ultimately won the oil price war, leaving Saudi Arabia and its OPEC allies with hundreds of billions in lost revenue and prolonged financial deficits. Throughout his first term, Trump consistently pressured Saudi Arabia to maintain oil prices within the "Trump oil price range," despite the economic pressure this placed on the kingdom and OPEC. He also reminded Saudi Arabia of their precarious position in 2018 when oil prices exceeded this range, stating: "We protect Saudi Arabia. And I love the king, King Salman. But I said 'King, we're protecting you - you may not be there in two weeks if we don't protect you - you have to pay for your military'."

The Controversial Nuclear Agreement

So why, under Trump's direct leadership, did the US sign a significant agreement with Saudi Arabia allowing the country to develop a civilian nuclear energy program—a program that could more easily lead to nuclear weapons development than any similar agreement the US has implemented in recent years?

According to a source in Washington, the agreement raises concerns not only from the civilian nuclear program itself but also from its terms, which make conversion to a nuclear weapons development program easier. "Israel views this as a first step in an evolutionary path that could lead to acquiring uranium enrichment capabilities, followed by escalation to the level needed for a nuclear warhead."

In reality, this 30-year US-Saudi Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation Agreement marks a significant departure from previous US policy in similar agreements, such as the 2009 agreement with the UAE. In the UAE agreement, the country agreed not to enrich uranium domestically or reprocess plutonium. Instead, the UAE imported reactor fuel and returned used fuel, creating a model with no weapons development capability. In contrast, the Saudi agreement allows for domestic uranium enrichment and does not require the country to implement the IAEA's "Additional Protocol."

The Threat of Saudi Arabia's Nuclear Program

Views that this agreement essentially serves as a license for Saudi Arabia to easily transition from a civilian nuclear energy program to a nuclear weapons development program are reinforced by statements from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. In 2018, he declared that while his country does not want to possess nuclear weapons, "If Iran develops a nuclear bomb, we will follow as soon as possible."

In this context, a source from the European Union noted that if Saudi Arabia has highly enriched uranium, all they would need from another country to convert it into a nuclear weapon would be the physics package—including detonation mechanisms and other necessary components. If Saudi Arabia could source all of these from Pakistan or elsewhere, they would not need to build the uranium metal conversion infrastructure required for safety.

Benefits for the United States

Why did Trump consider all of this a good idea? When examining other elements of the agreement in the context of regional and global geopolitics, it becomes clear that this agreement offers numerous benefits for the United States. First, it could bring hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure contracts for American companies. Second, it prevents Saudi Arabia from entering into similar nuclear agreements with China or Russia, which also do not require strict non-proliferation measures. Third, it creates a US-controlled "Damocles sword" of a nuclear weapons threat against Iran to "encourage" positive outcomes from that regime. Finally, it strengthens Saudi Arabia's position within US influence, paving the way for a new phase in implementing the "Abraham Accords" in the region.

Given these considerations, the US-Saudi nuclear agreement not only raises numerous questions about regional security but could also create profound changes in the global balance of power. The potential proliferation risks must be carefully weighed against the strategic benefits, as the world watches how this agreement unfolds in the complex geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.