Hormuz Gradually Reopens: Oil Market Still Faces Uncertainty
The Strait of Hormuz - the vital artery for global oil transportation - is gradually resuming normal operations after more than 11 weeks of ceasefire between the United States and Iran. However, the global oil market remains unable to fully stabilize amid persistent uncertainties.
Current Situation at the Strait of Hormuz
Following weeks of escalating tensions, the ceasefire between the US and Iran has been maintained for over 11 weeks, enabling oil shipping activities through the Strait of Hormuz to gradually return to normal. Nevertheless, the market cannot yet fully relax due to remaining potential risks.
According to data from maritime shipping companies and maritime monitoring agencies, the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz has increased by approximately 30% compared to the low point during the period of heightened tensions. However, this figure remains 15% below the average level before the conflict erupted.
Oil Transportation Data Through the Strait of Hormuz
| Time Period | Daily Oil Tanker Count | Daily Oil Volume (million barrels) | Change from Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-conflict | 18.5 | 17.2 | - |
| Conflict low point | 12.3 | 11.5 | -33.5% |
| Current | 16.1 | 15.3 | -13.0% |
Impact on the Global Oil Market
The relative stability in the Strait of Hormuz has helped crude oil prices decrease slightly in the past week. However, the market remains in a state of uncertainty due to multiple factors influencing the situation.
According to analysts from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Brent crude prices have decreased by approximately 3.5% from the peak during the period of heightened tensions, trading around $78 per barrel. Nevertheless, prices remain 5% higher than the six-month average.
Impact on Export Volumes of Gulf Countries
| Country | Export Volume (million barrels/day) | Change from Pre-conflict | Current Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 7.2 | -8.3% | Recovering |
| Iraq | 3.5 | -5.7% | Slow recovery |
| Iran | 1.8 | -45.2% | Still affected by sanctions |
| UAE | 2.8 | -3.6% | Stable |
Remaining Risk Factors
Although the ceasefire has been maintained, many experts warn that the situation in the Gulf region still contains numerous risks that could affect the oil market in the future.
- Political Instability: Relations between the US and Iran remain tense, and any action could escalate the conflict again.
- International Sanctions: Sanctions against Iran remain in place, limiting the country's ability to export oil.
- Maritime Security: The risk of attacks on oil tankers persists in the region, particularly from militant groups.
- Natural Production Decline: Many oil fields in the region are aging, with natural production gradually decreasing.
Future Outlook
According to market analysts' forecasts, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will continue to be a critical factor influencing oil prices in the coming period.
Ms. Nguyen Thi Mai, an analyst from the Vietnam Energy Institute, stated: "The oil market will continue to be affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz for at least the next six months. However, if the ceasefire remains stable, oil prices could decrease slightly to the $70-75 per barrel range by the end of the year."
Major oil companies such as Saudi Aramco, BP, and ExxonMobil have begun adjusting their strategies to cope with the uncertain situation in the Gulf region, including diversifying supply sources and increasing strategic reserves.
Conclusion
The gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after more than 11 weeks of ceasefire between the US and Iran is a positive signal for the global oil market. However, existing political and security uncertainties prevent the market from fully stabilizing. Oil prices are likely to continue fluctuating in the near future, especially if there are unexpected changes in the Gulf region.
Investors and businesses in the oil industry need to closely monitor the political situation in the region and prepare contingency plans to minimize risks to their business operations.