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If more than 20% of the world's oil passes through Hormuz is circulated normally again, will oil prices plummet or is the market overestimating the remaining risks in the Middle East?
On June 18, 2026, Washington time, the US Central Command confirmed the lifting of blockade measures on ships arriving and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas. This is considered the most important step since the US and Iran signed a temporary peace memorandum of understanding to reduce tensions in the Middle East.
Speaking at the White House, US Vice President JD Vance said the 60-day negotiation period has officially begun. The goal is to resolve outstanding issues between the two countries and build a long-term security mechanism for the Strait of Hormuz.
Immediately after this announcement, many oil tankers began returning to the strategic maritime route connecting the Persian Gulf to the world.
Why Hormuz is Important to the World
The Strait of Hormuz is considered a global energy artery.
Scale Index
Oil shipped through Hormuz About 20% of world oil needsgender
LNG gas flows through Hormuz About 25% of global LNG trade
Major dependent countries Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, Iran
The value of oil transported every day is tens of billions of VND converted
With just a few days of disruption in operations at Hormuz, Brent and WTI oil prices often fluctuate strongly due to supply concerns.
What's Happened In The Past Weeks
During the period of escalating US-Iran tensions, many shipping lines and energy businesses have limited or delayed operations via Hormuz.
Some oil tankers had to change routes or wait for security confirmation before continuing their journey.
As a result
Impact Level
Oil tanker insurance costs increased sharply
Oil and gas transportation prices are increasing rapidly
Delivery time Extended
Market sentiment Concerns about lack of supply
The event on June 18, 2026 is considered the first positive signal to help reduce pressure on the global energy supply chain.
Will Oil Prices Fall Sharply?
This is the biggest question today.
Although the US has lifted its blockade, many experts believe that transportation activities will not be able to fully recover in just a few days.
Shipping lines, insurers and traders are still assessing the actual safety of the area.
What are the supporting factors?Oil price decline Factors supporting oil price increase
Oil tankers resume operations Geopolitical risks still exist
Iran supply improves Summer demand increases
Transportation costs are gradually decreasing. OPEC still controls output
Market sentiment is more stable Any military incident could happen
This means that oil prices may not fall as deeply as many investors expect.
Who Benefits?
Major oil exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran will directly benefit when transportation activities are restored.
Large energy corporations also have the opportunity to reduce logistics costs and speed up deliveries.
Meanwhile, major oil importing countries in Asia such as China, Japan, South Korea and India can reduce energy cost pressure if the situation continues to stabilize.
Market Perspective
It is worth noting that the US not only lifted the blockade but also openly promoted the regional security mechanism after JD Vance's speech.
If the 60-day negotiations achieve positive results, this could be the biggest turning point in the oil and gas market since the recent Middle East crises.
On the contrary, if negotiations break down, Hormuz could once again become the focus of the global energy market.demand and pulled oil prices back up sharply.
Important Timeline
Event Time
June 18, 2026 The US announced the lifting of the blockade of ships related to Iran
June 18, 2026 Vice President JD Vance confirmed the start of 60-day negotiations
Late June 2026 Tankers begin returning to Hormuz
August 2026 Expected to end the first phase of negotiations
The world oil and gas market is entering an extremely sensitive period. A peace announcement can change billions of dollars in value in just a few hours, but it only takes a small incident at Hormuz for the whole picture to reverse immediately.
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